As we come to the end of this four-part series, we look to examine the outcome that we will face once this is all over. With that in mind, we ask ourselves the final question; are we going to see the same outcome and devastation that we saw in 2008?
One of the key factors in buying and selling a home is the confidence that people have, and in times like these, memories of past experiences come back to us as we recall all the uncertainties that we faced. But the focus cannot be on what has occurred in the past, but rather what is occurring today and the days to come. With that, we look to see what is being said from the Federal Housing Administration.
The Federal Housing Administration indicated it is enacting an “immediate foreclosure and eviction moratorium for single family homeowners with FHA-insured mortgages” for the next 60 days. The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced it is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to suspend foreclosures and evictions for “at least 60 days.”
What we are seeing is things in 2008 that we got wrong that you are now seeing the government respond to in regard to the needs that the consumers and the industry have so that It doesn’t happen again. We are seeing how banks are going to respond individually to borrowers in those situations. Actions like this show that the way this is being handled is significantly different than back then, and there are also structural actions that we can look at that are very different now. The visuals provided below will help to better illustrate this.
This first visual shows us exactly where we were in 2008, and what you’ll notice is that there were $828 Billion in cash out refinances back then, and homes were basically being used as ATM machines to which cash was being taken out to harvest equity from their home, a lot of which was being put in depreciating assets. When we start to look at today in the last 3 years, cash out refinances are a fraction of what they were leading up to 2008. What this entails, is that people have learned their lesson and are no longer doing what they have done in the past with the equity in their homes, and today the equity position is very different than what it once was, with over 50% of homes in the united states having over 50% equity. In 2008, people were walking away from homes when they had negative equity, but that is no longer the case.
We are in a very different situation today than we were back then. Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and its fair to say that the government and the American people have learned their lesson.
As we started out this year, we saw a market where income is rising, and mortgage rates have been falling. What this has created is a drop for the historic norm in the payment as a % of income, as demonstrated in the visual above. Historically speaking, the norm percentage of income that has been dedicated to their mortgage has been 21.2%, and right now what we’ve seen leading into this, is that number being 14.8%. This is significantly lower than the historic norm speaking in leverage to the consumer in relative to housing.
In conclusion, what we are seeing now and, in the months/years to come is not going to be the same as we saw after the crash in 2008. Homeowners have learned from their past mistakes, and the government is taking the necessary precautions to ensure that history does not repeat itself. While the uncertainty factor remains for a lot of what is occurring in the county and the world, it can be said with confidence that we will come out of this stronger, and better than going into it.
We hope that this four-part series has shed some light into the biggest questions that you may have right now. If you have any other questions about the current market and what’s to come, feel free to give us a call at (540) 388-2541.
Moving into part three of our four part series, the next question that we need to ask is: Are we headed towards another recession, and what does that mean?
When we talk about where we are today, the reality is that we can feel the slowdown occurring across the county, and it will continue to have an impact on economic activity. When addressing this question/concern, we have to ask ourselves what a recession truly is. A recession is a slowdown in economic activity. Now when we hear the word “recession” we immediately have these ideas and thoughts of what the prior recession was. If we talk about an economic slowdown, it’s very different, and keeping that in mind as we continue to talk about it is critically important in these times. To help discuss this, we’ll turn to the experts. Bill McBride from Calculated Risk had this to say:
“With this sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars restaurants etc. my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2 (as Goldman Sachs is forecasting). The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”
Now certainly we can say that we are feeling this slowdown, and it can be said that we will continue to feel this throughout the course of the pandemic. If we look at where we were in 2008 compared to today, 2008 was like a tornado that had ripped through our town and tore things that had to be slowly rebuilt over time, and what we are experiencing today is a heavy snowstorm that is shutting things down. What we do know is that as time moves on, we will start to see things open back up again. We will be able to go to bars, restaurants and sporting events with the only challenge being getting into these places as everyone is going to be out and about.
Looking at that graphically speaking, the figure above provided by Goldman Sachs begins to show a “V” of recovery, and not a “U” like we saw in 2008, being a sharp decline followed by a sharp increase displaying further strong gains as we head into 2021. When looking at what the experts have to say, Wells Fargo agrees as well, saying “We do not expect a repeat of the severe recession of 2008-2009, because the virus and oil shocks are not endemic to the financial system, but are, rather, external. Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”
Referring back to the analogy previously used, we will not have to rebuild our financial system like in 2008. Once the snow melts from this current storm, things will kick in, and that’s why we see that “V” curve instead of the “U” curve.
So rather than use the actual word “recession” we should look to use the definition, being an “economic slowdown” and if that does happen, we need to look at our history of events that have shown similarities to what is occurring, and what we can expect to see moving forward. The visual provided below shows what has occurred with changes in home price over the last 5 recessions.
What we can see from this graphic is that in three of the last five recessions, home prices actually increased as a result. We did see a slight decrease in 1991, but what we all really remember is the significant decrease shown in 2008.
The message that needs to be taken from this is that recession does not equal a housing crisis.
As we continue to look for answers to some of the biggest
questions surrounding this crisis, we start to wonder what kind of effect the
stock market has on the housing market, and how much of an impact we will see
as a result. We begin by asking ourselves; When the stock market goes down as
quickly has it has been, does it have a tremendous effect on home prices?
Often the best answers to questions is another question itself, and in this case, we look to the last crisis that occurred; being the crash of 2008. So, we ask, will this be just like 2008?
To help answer this, we take a look at the graph provided above which shows the crash of 2008, to the S&P Correction of the same time. The graph illustrates the S&P Correction at 51% during that time, and the Annual Home Price Deprecation that occurred just under 20%.
In a quote by David Rosenberg, he explains that what we are experiencing now has more in common with what we experienced in 2001 (9/11) than with 2008.
“What 9/11 has in common with what is happening today is
that this shock has also generated fear, angst, and anxiety among the general
public. People avoided crowds then as they believed another terrorist attack
was coming and are acting the same today to avoid getting sick. The same parts
of the economy are under pressure – airlines, leisure, hospitality,
restaurants, entertainment – consumer discretionary services in general.” –
David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.’s Chief Economist.
When breaking down what was said by Mr. Rosenberg, we can see that this event lines up more with how we acted when 9/11 occurred. To help better illustrate this comparison, we will look at the graph below similarly as we did for 2008, but instead observe what occurred with 9/11 as well as the Dot.com crash.
Here we can see that the S&P Correction was at 45%,
however cumulatively over the same time, Housing Price Appreciation was
up almost 24%. This shows that housing reacted very differently during 9/11 and
the Dot.com crash compared to how it reacted in 2008. This visual helps make
the case that it’s not unreasonable to say that if what we’re experiencing
right now is a lot more like 9/11 and not 2008, than the housing market will react a lot more
like it did during 9/11 and the Dot.com crash than it did in 2008. Annual Home
Price Appreciation reacted very well, and based of off what’s occurred so far,
we can make the argument that we are seeing similar situations now.
When the pandemic began, the housing market was off to a tremendous start, with home sale reports showing the highest number of houses sold within the last 13 years, on an annual basis. While a bit of a slowdown has occurred due to the events going on, we can say that when this is all over, and it will be, we can expect the market to come roaring back and continue that trend that started the year off.
In these recent times of uncertainty, you may find yourself asking
how the Novel Coronavirus has impacted the housing market, and what changes you
can expect to see. We are here to give you some insight by answering four of the
biggest questions in this four-part blog involving what has happened to the
housing market, and what we can expect to see in the months and years to come.
Now more than ever it’s important to stay informed on what’s occuring in the
county, and we hope this series will provide you with the necessary information
that you need.
The first biggest question you may be asking yourself, is
what are people doing with their money, and what does it mean for housing?
To start off, it’s important to look at the relationship between the 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year treasury rate. For almost 50 years, the two rates have moved in unison with one another, with the 10-year treasury rate often being used to predict the foreseen mortgage rate.
As seen in the graph above, the two have held a symbiotic relationship of the past several decades. What you may now notice, is that this relationship has recently changed. This change can be attributed to several other factors such as money coming out of the stock market and into bonds. While treasury rates have seen a recent decline, mortgage rates have not followed in the same trend. In fact, what we are seeing right now is volatility in the market as pricing is going back and forth intraday.
In a quote from First American, “As evidenced by recent events, often the spread increases because mortgage refinance application processing capacity cannot meet demand, so lender-offered rates don’t follow the Treasury yield down one for one. So, while the mortgage rate has declined in response to the decline in yields, it is unlikely to fall by the same magnitude as the Treasury yield…
It is plausible that mortgage rates fall further if the
benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds yield decline further…
It’s reasonable to expect that rates will fall even further
and likely surpass the prior record low, but not necessarily one-for-one with
the 10-year Treasury yield.” – Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First
American.
In the graph below, we can look at the rate environment over the last year to better illustrate the flow of the 30-year mortgage rate going forward.
With all the volatility we’re seeing in the market right now being different than we’ve ever seen, we should look to the 10-year treasury as a way to judge what to expect in the future.
