The historic low housing inventory creates value opportunities in competitive housing markets.
Anticipation of new home listings to hit a 10-year high as some owners see right now as the best time to sell.
Condo and rental demand are likely to surge as inventory supply chain issues impact the housing market.
This Year Will Bring Balance to the Housing Market
After two consecutive years in which words like “unprecedented,” “historic,” and “white-hot” have been buzzing about, we can now add “inflation” to the list.
What is inflation, and how will it affect the real estate market in 2022?
Real estate is not immune from the inflationary effects of declining purchasing power on an economy. When prices go up, so do the costs associated with real estate. In a nutshell, that’s how inflation works; like a rising tide lifts all boats, so does inflation with rising costs. However, there are always reasons to be genuinely confident in real estate’s proven ability to hedge against inflation and be profitable.
Here are three particulars and tips to help you navigate these inflationary waters and better prepare you to make your move when you decide it’s time to do so.
#1: Low Housing Inventory Drives Values
With the market expected to remain undersupplied throughout the year and with this year already seeing historic low numbers in housing inventory, continued supply chain issues, and material costs resulting from inflationary pressure will undoubtedly influence the market. Many analysts are anticipating a modest 3% growth in home values, compared to the 24% return that last year saw.
Historically, it is well-documented that real estate remains profitable when inflation affects an economy. One reason is that landlords can always pass their cost increases off to their tenants. But the real lesson here is the age-old axiom that scarcity creates value. So instead of seeing the record-low number of housing inventory as something to steer clear of, it means that while there may be much competition in home buying, that’s because of the value of being a homeowner.
#2: New Listings to Hit 10-Year High
The end of double-digit price growth in home values will also encourage more homeowners to cash out finally, which will create more inventory in the market. But as the market settles down and becomes more balanced, homeowners will also be more inclined to list their homes to offset inflationary pressures elsewhere, though it will not be enough to meet the expected historical demand in 2022. This increase in listings of existing homes will also coincide with a slight increase in the listings of newly constructed homes, similarly expected to be the highest in a decade.
New home inventory should increase from 2021’s bottom, but we anticipate the market will remain undersupplied. In particular, the entry-level supply of new home construction will remain highly constrained.
#3: Condo and Rental Demand Will Take Off
2022 will also see the end of mortgage forbearance, which along with inflationary pressures, will cause many homeowners to sell and rent instead. This surge in rental costs and demand will create opportunities for others looking to get into the housing market. As a result, expect rents to increase 7% by the end of 2022, more than double the predicted year-over-year growth in home prices of 3%, once again proving that homeownership is always a more reliable use and investment of your money.
As the pandemic subsides, more people will live in cities once again where renting is more common. Additionally, the strong labor market will cause many movers wanting to move into a new town the opportunity to get to know their new city before they commit to homeownership.
The Market Is Moving—Get Started Now
There’s always much to consider when buying a new home. Whether you’re a first-time home buyer or looking for your next, understanding the more significant economic trends is always important to maximize your efforts’ success. So contact us today and let us know how we can help support you in your journey.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata.
To see available Lake of the Woods properties, please visit our site.
0 sold between $130-199,999; 0 sold between $200-249,999; 4 sold between $250,000-299,999; 9 sold between $300-349,999; 7 sold between $350,000-399,999; 2 sold between $400-499,999; 0 sold between $500,000-$999,999; 1 sold over $1,000,000!
18 Active/Coming Soon Listings for Sale 25 Homes Under Contract 359 Homes Sold since January 1, 2021.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata
Many of the dynamics seen in 2021 will carry through into next year’s housing market, but at a much less frenzied pace.
As remote work becomes a more permanent, widespread option, Millennials are taking advantage and entering the real estate market.
We’re ready for another seller’s market. Like last year, there isn’t time to waste—contact us to start planning now!
What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know About the 2022 Housing Market
In the final few weeks of 2021, both home buyers and sellers look forward to what lies ahead in 2022. We can help build your strategy to stay competitive! Don’t wait for the real estate market to heat up during the spring and summer. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the competition next year.
First-time home buyers can overcome the challenging market
Recent real estate forecasts suggest that competitive will be the defining characteristic of the housing market throughout 2022. That will be especially true for first-time home buyers.
Competing levels of low inventory supply and high buyer demand will continue to hold housing market values at, or above, asking prices. Total inventory will increase by the end of 2022, but it will not be enough to slow the seller’s market.
For first-time home buyers to secure their house, they need to start early and expect competition. On a positive note, low interest rates can help new homeowners build equity faster.
Millennials are working remotely and finally buying homes
A lot has changed in these last two years. Buzzwords like “the new normal” were everywhere, along with speculations about how people lived, worked, and commuted were going to change. As we enter into 2022, we now have data reports and are beginning to see how these changes affect the housing market.
The ability to work remotely is helping the more than 45 million Millennials that make up the fastest growing segment of buyers. After an uphill battle, they’re entering the prime first-time home buying age range of 26 – 35, and changing the real estate landscape.
Millennials are leaving the glamour of big city life to take advantage of more affordable housing markets in suburbs and rural areas. As long as they have internet access, their salary remains the same. And unsurprisingly, 99% of them use technology to research the home buying market.
With 90% of managers and employees reporting that they’re happy working from home, and productivity increasing by as much as 47%, remote work is here to stay. The new normal will also create new investment opportunities as companies seek to reduce their office sizes.
Low inventory stretches into the new year
After years of underbuilding, housing supply shortages will continue to be a dominant feature of the market next year. One of the most significant factors that will carry over immediately from last year is low inventory supply.
Available housing will remain tight throughout the year. While that will generate some stress, it will also drive home values higher. Estimates of continued home sales growth will be 6.6%.
While housing inventory levels will remain lower than their pre-pandemic levels throughout 2022, a modest 0.3% growth in inventory should be enough to keep market prices from spiraling even further upward.
Sellers remain in control of the market
As we look ahead to 2022, some clear realities for the housing market begin to appear: it will remain a seller’s market. Interest rates continue to hover around a record-low 3%, providing incentives for sellers to upgrade to a larger home for a lower monthly payment.
After the refinance boom in 2020, homeowners are still in an advantageous position. With home sales expected to hit their highest level in 16 years due to Millennials entering the housing market, sellers sit in a very good position to profit. If accurately priced and, more importantly, if houses are in great condition with upgrades throughout, the real estate market will continue to be a boon for sellers.
Be Prepared for a Competitive Year
The new normal in 2022 turns out to be an old adage: the early bird gets the worm. We have the experience and can move quickly to make sure you stay competitive, regardless of whether you’re buying or selling. Contact us today to make your plan for the new year!
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata.
To see available Lake of the Woods properties, please visit our site.
0 sold between $130-199,999; 1 sold between $200-249,999; 4 sold between $250,000-299,999; 4 sold between $300-349,999; 5 sold between $350,000-399,999; 3 sold between $400-499,999; 1 sold between $500,000-$900,000; see 402 Harrison Cir, here. 1 sold over $1,000,000! See 104 Tyler Trail, here.
20 Active/Coming Soon Listings for Sale 35 Homes Under Contract 330 Homes Sold since January 1, 2021.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata
In August, 33 homes sold in Lake of the Woods. 1 sold between $130-199,999; 2 sold between $200-249,999; 7 sold between $250,000-299,999; 12 sold between $300-349,999; 8 sold between $350,000-399,999; 3 sold between $400-499,999; 0 homes sold over $500,000;
28 Active/Coming Soon Listings for Sale 48 Homes Under Contract 241 Homes Sold since January 1, 2021.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata
With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.
1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.
Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.
Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:
“There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting. Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent.”
2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.
During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).
Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.
Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.
3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.
FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out) dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.
Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist, Economic & Housing Research at Freddie Mac, explains that pullback is the major factor in the lack of available inventory today:
“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”
Here’s a chart that quantifies Khater’s remarks:
Today, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.
Bottom Line
This market is nothing like the run-up to 2006. Bill McBride, the author of the prestigious Calculated Risk blog, predicted the last housing bubble and crash. This is what he has to say about today’s housing market:
“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while because inventory is so low.”
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata.
To see available Lake of the Woods properties, please visit our site.
An important factor in today’s market is the number of homes for sale. While inventory levels continue to sit near historic lows, there are indications we may have hit the lowest point we’ll see. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, recently said of our supply challenges:
“It looks like inventory may have hit a bottom (we’ve seen this in the higher frequency data as well). Unsold inventory in May was at 2.5 months supply, up from 2.4.”
To put it into perspective, the graph below shows levels of inventory rising since the beginning of the year:
We’re still not close to a balanced market, which would be a 6 months’ supply of homes for sale. However, we are seeing a slow but steady increase in homes coming up for sale. And that leaves many buyers and sellers wondering the same thing: what does that mean for me?
Buyers: More Options Are Arriving, so It’s Time To Act
If you’re a buyer, more inventory coming to market is a welcome sight. More supply means more options and less competition, which could mean fewer bidding wars.
“In June, newly listed homes grew by 5.5% on a year-over-year basis, and by 10.9% on a month-over-month basis. Typically, fewer newly listed homes appear on the market in the month of June compared to May. This year, growth in new listings is continuing later into the summer season, a welcome sign for a tight housing market.”
If you’re having trouble finding your next home, this news should give you the hope and motivation to keep your buying process moving forward. Experts project mortgage rates will begin increasing, which will make purchasing a home less affordable as time passes. You can still capitalize on today’s low interest rates, so stick with your search as more homes come to market.
Sellers: Our Supply Challenges Aren’t Over Yet, so Now Is the Time To Sell
If you’ve been putting off selling your house, you shouldn’t wait much longer. The year’s month-over-month gains in homes for sale have helped buyers, but we’re still very much in a sellers’ market.
As the graph below shows, even with the number of homes for sale rising, we’re still well below the supply levels we’ve seen historically:
Of course, more homes are coming to market now, and more are expected in the coming months. Selling your house this summer gives you the chance to get ahead of the competition and maximize your sales potential before more homes are put up for sale in your neighborhood.
Bottom Line
More homes for sale means more options for buyers and more competition for sellers. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, let’s connect today to discuss your options and why it’s still a good time to make your move.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata.
To see available Lake of the Woods properties, please visit our site.
In June, 40 homes sold in Lake of the Woods. 1 sold between $130-199,999; 4 sold between $200-249,999; 3 sold between $250,000-299,999; 7 sold between $300-349,999; 10 sold between $350,000-399,999; 8 sold between $400-499,999; 2 homes sold over $500,000.; 2 home sold over $600,000; 1 home sold over $800,000; 2 homes sold over $900,000!
28 Active Listings for Sale 22 Homes Under Contract 186 Homes Sold since January 1, 2021.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata
In May, 24 homes sold in Lake of the Woods. 1 sold between $130-199,999; 1 sold between $200-249,999; 3 sold between $250,000-299,999; 8 sold between $300-349,999; 6 sold between $350,000-399,999; 1 sold between $400-599,999; 1 home sold over $500,000.; 1 home sold over $600,000; 1 home sold over $700,000; 1 home sold over $800,000; 1 home sold over $900,000!
14 Active Listings for Sale 52 Homes Under Contract 135 Homes Sold since January 1, 2021.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata
In April, 38 homes sold in Lake of the Woods. 3 sold between $130-199,999; 2 sold between $200-249,999; 3 sold between $250,000-299,999; 16 sold between $300-349,999; 8 sold between $350,000-399,999; 5 sold between $400-599,999; 1 home sold over $600,000.
14 Active Listings for Sale 49 Homes Under Contract 108 Homes Sold since January 1, 2021.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by home owners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata
