The continued inventory shortage experienced by most regions of the country was clearly evident in Lake of the Woods again in 2023. This inventory shortage, along with rising interest rates and inflation concerns beginning in the second half of 2022, definitely defined the 2023 real estate market. Closed sales decreased approximately 19% from 271 to 220. New construction accounted for 24 of the 220 sales, and the median sold price increased 6.8% year over year from $375,950 to $401,500 in 2023.
Now let’s look at the past five years:
In 2019, 301 homes sold, which was a 28.63% increase over 2018, and the median sales price rose to $270,000. In 2020, we realized a 4% gain in home sales over 2019, with a total of 313 sales. 2021 showed a gain in sales at 358, and the median sold price increased almost 16% to $337,500, up from $291,250 in 2020. And then came the mixed bag 2022 market: closed sales fell by more than 24%, while the median sold price rose by 11.39%. 2023 also showed an almost 19% decline in closed sales at 220, yet the median sold price continued to rise, ending the year at $401,500, a 6.8% increase over 2022.
Average days on the market (DOM), the number of days it takes from the time a property is listed until it goes under contract had steadily decreased from 57 in 2019 to 16 in 2021…yet in 2022, it rose to 23, showing more evidence of a changing market. 2023 showed another rise to 32.
It’s also telling to note that a significant number of lots have sold in the past five years. From January 1, 2019, through December 31, 2023, a total of 140 lots were sold: 41 in 2019; 49 in 2020; 24 in 2021; and only 13 in both 2022 and 2023. There simply are very few lots left in LOW.
Of the MLS sales reported in 2019-2023, new construction numbers have varied. 2019 realized 31; 2020 sales jumped to 41; 2021 ended at 37; and 2022 saw new construction sales dip to only 13 and rise again to 37 in 2023.
Again, there aren’t many lots left in LOW, which, of course, will impact new construction sales in the future.
Another notable statistic is the rise in the average sold price to original list price ratio from 2018-2021. 2022 showed a slight decrease to 100.3%, followed by another decrease in 2023 to 98%.
The financial experts’ forecast for 2023 called for rates to stabilize and then begin a slow decline. The decline in rates didn’t occur as quickly as anticipated.
The 2024 forecast calls for more buyer confidence and a reduction in interest rates that should bring buyers back into the market who “paused” due to all of the uncertainty of 2023. Yet those reductions may come more slowly than anticipated, as during the Federal Reserve’s news conference on January 31, 2024, Chair Jerome Powell noted that a March rate cut is unlikely.
“Home prices keep marching higher,” says National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yuns. “Only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation.” And Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather predicts that mortgage rates will fall to about 6.6% by the end of 2024.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or property in Virginia, we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “What is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, one of our expert advisors will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contacting Pat Licata. To see available Lake of the Woods properties, please visit our site.