Moving into part three of our four part series, the next question that we need to ask is: Are we headed towards another recession, and what does that mean?
When we talk about where we are today, the reality is that we can feel the slowdown occurring across the county, and it will continue to have an impact on economic activity. When addressing this question/concern, we have to ask ourselves what a recession truly is. A recession is a slowdown in economic activity. Now when we hear the word “recession” we immediately have these ideas and thoughts of what the prior recession was. If we talk about an economic slowdown, it’s very different, and keeping that in mind as we continue to talk about it is critically important in these times. To help discuss this, we’ll turn to the experts. Bill McBride from Calculated Risk had this to say:
“With this sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars restaurants etc. my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2 (as Goldman Sachs is forecasting). The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”
Now certainly we can say that we are feeling this slowdown, and it can be said that we will continue to feel this throughout the course of the pandemic. If we look at where we were in 2008 compared to today, 2008 was like a tornado that had ripped through our town and tore things that had to be slowly rebuilt over time, and what we are experiencing today is a heavy snowstorm that is shutting things down. What we do know is that as time moves on, we will start to see things open back up again. We will be able to go to bars, restaurants and sporting events with the only challenge being getting into these places as everyone is going to be out and about.
Looking at that graphically speaking, the figure above provided by Goldman Sachs begins to show a “V” of recovery, and not a “U” like we saw in 2008, being a sharp decline followed by a sharp increase displaying further strong gains as we head into 2021. When looking at what the experts have to say, Wells Fargo agrees as well, saying “We do not expect a repeat of the severe recession of 2008-2009, because the virus and oil shocks are not endemic to the financial system, but are, rather, external. Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”
Referring back to the analogy previously used, we will not have to rebuild our financial system like in 2008. Once the snow melts from this current storm, things will kick in, and that’s why we see that “V” curve instead of the “U” curve.
So rather than use the actual word “recession” we should look to use the definition, being an “economic slowdown” and if that does happen, we need to look at our history of events that have shown similarities to what is occurring, and what we can expect to see moving forward. The visual provided below shows what has occurred with changes in home price over the last 5 recessions.
What we can see from this graphic is that in three of the last five recessions, home prices actually increased as a result. We did see a slight decrease in 1991, but what we all really remember is the significant decrease shown in 2008.
The message that needs to be taken from this is that recession does not equal a housing crisis.
Saving for a house might seem difficult, especially as the economy continues to fluctuate. However, that doesn’t mean you have to give up on your home buying dreams! If you want to take your first steps towards homeownership, we have a few simple tricks that can help you build your savings account.
How to Save Up for Your Perfect Place
Before you begin saving, consider how much you’d ideally like to put down on a house. Your down payment will likely be your largest upfront cost, and most buyers put down around 20% of a home’s value. However, there are some loans that require as little as 0% down, so be sure to explore all of your options.
It can take years to save up for a home. Nevertheless, if you plan ahead and follow these tips, you’ll soon be on a path to success.
Create a monthly budget…and stick to it
Having a budget can help you set spending limitations and savings goals each month, but it’s crucial to stick to it if you want to make progress. Start by documenting all your sources of income, then subtract your monthly expenses. This shows you what you’re paying for housing, food, utilities, and extra expenses, as well as how much you have left over. From there, you can set spending goals and designate a certain amount of money towards your house fund every month.
Cut unnecessary spending
As you craft a new budget, consider cutting out any expenses you can live without. You might have to make some sacrifices, but if you’re serious about saving for a home, your hard work will pay off in the long run. The more you save, the more house you can afford!
Consider getting rid of any unnecessary recurring payments, like streaming services or magazine subscriptions. Cooking at home, buying generic brands, and putting off that big vacation can also save you thousands every year. If you put that money directly into your savings, you won’t even miss it…because you were already spending it.
Pay off your debt
If you’re like many would-be homebuyers, lingering credit card or student loan debt might be keeping you from making a move. Before you start saving for a home, try to pay off debts or reconsolidate them into a smaller monthly payment with a lower interest rate.
Not sure where to start? Consider talking with a financial advisor about any underlying debt that needs to be paid off. It might take a while, but it’s better to take on a mortgage with more manageable payments.
Put your retirement savings on hold
While it is crucial to save for retirement, buying a home is also an important step in your life—so it’s okay to temporarily divert some of your savings towards your down payment. However, it’s not a good idea to take money out of your existing retirement accounts. You could get saddled with taxes and unwanted early withdrawal fees if you dip into your IRA or 401(k)!
Start a side hustle
Even during these challenging economic times, it’s still possible to make a quick buck doing what you love. Starting a side hustle can help you rake in some extra cash on the weekends and evenings—and even a little money can add up over time.
Looking for suggestions? Pet sitting, ride sharing, personal training, and photography are just a few possibilities. Who knows…your passion could turn into a profitable second income!
Ready to Start Your Buying Journey?
Looking for more home buying advice? We’ve got you covered! Just reach out to us for more tips and tricks, and let us know when you’re ready to take your next steps. We’re always here to answer any questions you might have, especially as the market continues to change.
As we continue to look for answers to some of the biggest
questions surrounding this crisis, we start to wonder what kind of effect the
stock market has on the housing market, and how much of an impact we will see
as a result. We begin by asking ourselves; When the stock market goes down as
quickly has it has been, does it have a tremendous effect on home prices?
Often the best answers to questions is another question itself, and in this case, we look to the last crisis that occurred; being the crash of 2008. So, we ask, will this be just like 2008?
To help answer this, we take a look at the graph provided above which shows the crash of 2008, to the S&P Correction of the same time. The graph illustrates the S&P Correction at 51% during that time, and the Annual Home Price Deprecation that occurred just under 20%.
In a quote by David Rosenberg, he explains that what we are experiencing now has more in common with what we experienced in 2001 (9/11) than with 2008.
“What 9/11 has in common with what is happening today is
that this shock has also generated fear, angst, and anxiety among the general
public. People avoided crowds then as they believed another terrorist attack
was coming and are acting the same today to avoid getting sick. The same parts
of the economy are under pressure – airlines, leisure, hospitality,
restaurants, entertainment – consumer discretionary services in general.” –
David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.’s Chief Economist.
When breaking down what was said by Mr. Rosenberg, we can see that this event lines up more with how we acted when 9/11 occurred. To help better illustrate this comparison, we will look at the graph below similarly as we did for 2008, but instead observe what occurred with 9/11 as well as the Dot.com crash.
Here we can see that the S&P Correction was at 45%,
however cumulatively over the same time, Housing Price Appreciation was
up almost 24%. This shows that housing reacted very differently during 9/11 and
the Dot.com crash compared to how it reacted in 2008. This visual helps make
the case that it’s not unreasonable to say that if what we’re experiencing
right now is a lot more like 9/11 and not 2008, than the housing market will react a lot more
like it did during 9/11 and the Dot.com crash than it did in 2008. Annual Home
Price Appreciation reacted very well, and based of off what’s occurred so far,
we can make the argument that we are seeing similar situations now.
When the pandemic began, the housing market was off to a tremendous start, with home sale reports showing the highest number of houses sold within the last 13 years, on an annual basis. While a bit of a slowdown has occurred due to the events going on, we can say that when this is all over, and it will be, we can expect the market to come roaring back and continue that trend that started the year off.
In these recent times of uncertainty, you may find yourself asking
how the Novel Coronavirus has impacted the housing market, and what changes you
can expect to see. We are here to give you some insight by answering four of the
biggest questions in this four-part blog involving what has happened to the
housing market, and what we can expect to see in the months and years to come.
Now more than ever it’s important to stay informed on what’s occuring in the
county, and we hope this series will provide you with the necessary information
that you need.
The first biggest question you may be asking yourself, is
what are people doing with their money, and what does it mean for housing?
To start off, it’s important to look at the relationship between the 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year treasury rate. For almost 50 years, the two rates have moved in unison with one another, with the 10-year treasury rate often being used to predict the foreseen mortgage rate.
As seen in the graph above, the two have held a symbiotic relationship of the past several decades. What you may now notice, is that this relationship has recently changed. This change can be attributed to several other factors such as money coming out of the stock market and into bonds. While treasury rates have seen a recent decline, mortgage rates have not followed in the same trend. In fact, what we are seeing right now is volatility in the market as pricing is going back and forth intraday.
In a quote from First American, “As evidenced by recent events, often the spread increases because mortgage refinance application processing capacity cannot meet demand, so lender-offered rates don’t follow the Treasury yield down one for one. So, while the mortgage rate has declined in response to the decline in yields, it is unlikely to fall by the same magnitude as the Treasury yield…
It is plausible that mortgage rates fall further if the
benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds yield decline further…
It’s reasonable to expect that rates will fall even further
and likely surpass the prior record low, but not necessarily one-for-one with
the 10-year Treasury yield.” – Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First
American.
In the graph below, we can look at the rate environment over the last year to better illustrate the flow of the 30-year mortgage rate going forward.
With all the volatility we’re seeing in the market right now being different than we’ve ever seen, we should look to the 10-year treasury as a way to judge what to expect in the future.
Are you stuck at home and looking to take on a DIY project? If you have an extra room or a small nook that you just don’t know how to use, try tackling a mini home makeover! Here are some out-of-the-box ways to transform surplus flex space into a room that you’ll actually use…and will maybe even appeal to future buyers.
Here’s How to Take Advantage Your Flex Space
A flex space is an area in your home that can be customized and used in a number of different ways. They’re designed to be flexible (hence the name), and their function can be changed depending on the kind of room you need.
Looking for some inspiration to really spruce up your flex space? Here are a few ideas that won’t require much money or time.
Incorporate a home office
Have you recently started working from home? If so, it might be worth setting up your own home office. Even if you don’t have a separate room for your workspace, you can easily create a dedicated office with what you have.
If you really need a place to work, start by moving around some furniture or finding a quieter area in your house that doesn’t get used often. Remember—this is supposed to be an office you’ll want to spend time in, so be sure to add more than just a desk. Some great lighting, storage for supplies, and a comfy couch or task chair can tie the whole workspace together.
Create a home gym
Turning your flex space into a home gym is a practical way to show off its potential as a multi-use space. And if you’ve been slacking off on your workouts recently, having a dedicated active area can help you stay fit without leaving home.
To get started, try adding some mirrors, a wall-mounted weight rack, and exercise equipment that you’ll actually use (like resistance bands, a stability ball, or dumbbells). You can also incorporate a television or child-safe mats to easily turn your workout spot into a media room or play area!
Make the most of smaller spaces
Does your home have a smaller room or nook that doesn’t seem to serve a purpose? You can make the most of these awkward spaces by transforming them into whatever you want—the options really are endless here, so feel free to get creative.
If you aren’t sure where to start, just let your imagination run wild. If you love to read, consider creating a small library or reading nook where you can relax with your favorite book. Want to pick up a new skill? Having a dedicated hobby room makes it easy to spend time doing what you love. You can even design a designated space for your pets or a playroom for your children—it’s all up to you!
Add tons of storage
No matter what you choose to do with your flex area, it’s crucial to have enough storage space. You never know what you might use a particular room for in the future—but closets, shelving, and cabinets are always useful additions.
Even if a room doesn’t have a dedicated closet, you can create stylish storage by adding built-ins or tall bookcases. For a more minimalist look, wall mounted shelves are the way to go. You can even incorporate storage as part of your decor by investing in a trendy ottoman or a set of matching baskets.
Getting Ready to Sell?
If you’re thinking about listing your home and want to maximize the potential of your flex space, we’d be happy to help! While it may be impossible to predict how current events will affect the market, you can still sell quickly and for top dollar—just give us a call for all the details.
With the recent orders from Governor Northem in regards to the Coronavirus, we at The Licata Group/KWCP have decided to temporarily close our physical office at 36111 Goodwin Drive in Locust Grove, VA. That being said, our efforts to serve our community and continuing our efforts to get the job done for our clients who are buying and selling will not stop. Effective today, 4/1/2020, we will be working remotely. Our phones will remain active and we will not slow down at all. We will continue to work with clients, and provide the best possible service during this time.
If you have any questions, feel free to call us at (540) 388-2541.
We thank you for your understanding, and look forward to continuing to working with the best clients that the great Commonwealth of Virginia has to offer.
We are happy to introduce you to the newest member of the Licata Group family, our new Listing Manager, Barbra Crane!
Barbra began her real estate career in 1998 as a licensed assistant. She then went on to sell real estate and has won several awards for her production over the years. In 2004 she obtained her Broker’s license, and in 2008 she became the team leader for the Stafford KW office. It was there that she found her a passion in helping agents succeed. Being a team leader is what made her realize that her calling is in helping realtors build their business and teams. Her favorite part of the work she does is the involvement in listings.
She joined the Licata Group as the Listing Manager because she felt that she could have the best of both worlds. She could work with listings, which are her favorite, as well as helping the agents within the Licata Group and our wonderful clientele. She thoroughly enjoys the work she does, and it has become her true passion in life. When out of the office, she likes to spend her free time by camping, traveling to various places both old and new, and racing!
We are happy to have such an amazing person become a member of our family, and we look forward to seeing how she will enhance the experience for our real estate advisors and for our clients!
In March, 22 homes sold in Lake of the Woods. 2 sold between $130-200,000; 7 sold between $200-249,000; 5 sold between $250-299,000; 5 sold between $300-400,000; 3 sold between $500-$600,000.
66 Active Listings for Sale 48 Homes Under Contract 33 Homes Sold since January 1, 2020.
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Lake of the Woods VA or Waterfront property in Virginia we are your Real Estate Advisors for Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Locust Grove, Central Virginia, and Greater Virginia. Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by home owners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, Pat will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata.
If you’ve been thinking about buying or selling a home in the near future, the unprecedented events of the last few weeks might have left you feeling a bit uncertain. COVID-19 has undoubtedly affected all of our lives, but that doesn’t mean you need to press pause on your real estate dreams.
We want to set the record straight about how these changes to everyday life affect buyers, sellers, and agents…and how you can protect yourself while continuing to pursue your goals.
How Will COVID-19 Affect the Real Estate Market?
Our way of life has changed dramatically within the course of just a few weeks, and the real estate market has shifted, too. Have a few questions? It’s hard to predict what will happen in the future, but here’s what we know right now.
Expect some major market shifts
As we adjust to a new normal, it’s clear that COVID-19 will have a lasting impact on every industry in the country—including real estate. However, this doesn’t mean that investors aren’t still buying and selling homes. A recent survey by the National Association of Realtors shows that 61% of sellers plan to keep their houses on the market, and over half of buyers will continue to shop for a home.
Although we’ll likely see a reduced number of sales in the coming weeks and months, record-low interest rates and a continuously low supply of homes might help to prevent any drastic price drops. Many economists also believe that another housing market crash is unlikely due to new regulations and stricter mortgage qualifications.
Buying and Selling a Home During COVID-19
As of early April, agents are continuing to help their clients buy and sell homes—but you can expect to see some changes aimed at keeping everyone safe and healthy.
Essential Tips for Sellers
Selling a home during the COVID-19 outbreak is definitely uncharted territory, but as we’ve seen in the last few weeks, it’s not impossible. Many sellers and their agents have worked together to pioneer new marketing strategies…some of which might last even after life returns to normal. Before you start scheduling those virtual showings, here are some tips to consider.
Make sure you’re healthy
First and foremost, it’s crucial to ensure that every member of your household is healthy before and during the selling process. Alert your agent right away if you’re feeling sick so they can halt in-person showings.
Sanitize your home
As a seller, your main priority should be ensuring that your home is germ-free, especially before a showing. We recommend wiping down all surfaces with disinfectant wipes and sprays and offering hand sanitizer to potential buyers. Reduce unnecessary touching by pre-opening any doors, cabinets, or drawers and turning on all lights before a showing.
Capitalize on digital marketing
If you still plan on selling soon, have your agent use the latest digital marketing techniques to really showcase your listing. Open houses and showings might be out, but virtual tours and showings via video sharing platforms are in—and it’s important to capitalize on these techniques to draw in potential buyers.
Essential Tips for Buyers
Believe it or not, it’s still possible to buy a home during these uncertain times—and modern technology is making everything easier than you might expect. Here’s how to stay safe and healthy throughout the entire buying process.
Make sure you’re healthy
If you’re feeling ill, it’s important that you stay home, practice social distancing, and avoid any showings. However, you can still continue to tour homes virtually and chat with your agent via online meetings.
Use virtual homebuying technology
Thanks to new innovations, it’s easier than ever to explore listings from the comfort of your couch. If you don’t want to attend a showing, many agents provide in-depth virtual tours and personal walkthroughs through video platforms like FaceTime and Zoom.
It’s also possible to complete the entire closing process remotely. Chances are, most documents can be signed electronically, which adds another layer of convenience and safety. Some states even allow you to virtually notarize your paperwork!
Take extra precautions during in-person showings
Want to see a home in person before making an offer? If your agent still offers normal showings, there are a few extra steps you should take to keep yourself (and the sellers) safe. Carry hand sanitizer with you and try to refrain from touching any surfaces. This might be difficult, but it’s the easiest way to mitigate the spread of germs. If your community has a shelter-in-place order, you may have to postpone any in-person showings until restrictions are lifted.
Have More Questions?
As we navigate the changes inflicted upon the market by COVID-19, it’s crucial to consider your individual needs and follow local guidelines. We’re constantly on the lookout for new ways to assist our clients, and we’re determined to protect your health and safety while helping you meet your goals. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact us.
The annual Festival of Kites is coming back to town on September 12th, at Brown’s Island in Richmond, Virginia! From 11AM – 6PM you’ll enjoy seeing all the various kites take to the sky, and you’ll definitely want to join in on the fun! Moon bounces and inflatables will also be available for kids and adults to enjoy! If you’re wanting to bring your own kite to fly, you’re more than welcome to, or you can purchase there! Supplies are limited though, so be prepared just in case! If all the kite flying works up an appetite, don’t fret because several food vendors will be setting up, as well as fresh smoothies and other beverages. There will also be an array of various vendors that will be displaying fine art, jewelry crafts and more! This will be a rain or shine event, and admission is FREE, so bring the whole family to join in on the fun!
Whether you’re looking for homes for sale in Fredericksburg, Stafford, Orange, Locust Grove, Culpeper, Northern Virginia or even Maryland or DC, we are your Real Estate team committed to finding the perfect home for you! Thinking of selling? In any market condition, “what is my home worth?” is the #1 question asked by homeowners. If you wish to sell your home, it needs to be sold for top dollar, and in a timely manner. Pricing your home accurately, one of our area expert advisors will partner with you to make the selling process so much easier. Get started today by calling us at (540) 388-2541 or contact Pat Licata.
To see available properties, please visit our website licatagroup.com
